Quantifying the Influences on Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e.g., related to costs and risks in the electrical grid. However, it was yet not studied how the input, such as numerical weather predictions, affects the model output of forecasting models in detail. Therefore, we examine the potential influences with techniques from the field of sensitivity analysis on three different black-box models to obtain insights into differences and similarities of these probabilistic models. The analysis shows a considerable number of potential influences in those models depending on, e.g., the predicted probability and the type of model. These effects motivate the need to take various influences into account when models are tested, analyzed, or compared. Nevertheless, results of the sensitivity analysis will allow us to select a model with advantages in the practical application.Comment: 5 pages; 1 table; 3 figures; This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessibl

Radar-based Road User Classification and Novelty Detection with Recurrent Neural Network Ensembles

Radar-based road user classification is an important yet still challenging task towards autonomous driving applications. The resolution of conventional automotive radar sensors results in a sparse data representation which is tough to recover by subsequent signal processing. In this article, classifier ensembles originating from a one-vs-one binarization paradigm are enriched by one-vs-all correction classifiers. They are utilized to efficiently classify individual traffic participants and also identify hidden object classes which have not been presented to the classifiers during training. For each classifier of the ensemble an individual feature set is determined from a total set of 98 features. Thereby, the overall classification performance can be improved when compared to previous methods and, additionally, novel classes can be identified much more accurately. Furthermore, the proposed structure allows to give new insights in the importance of features for the recognition of individual classes which is crucial for the development of new algorithms and sensor requirements.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, accepted paper for 2019 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV), Paris, France, June 201

Radar-based Feature Design and Multiclass Classification for Road User Recognition

The classification of individual traffic participants is a complex task, especially for challenging scenarios with multiple road users or under bad weather conditions. Radar sensors provide an - with respect to well established camera systems - orthogonal way of measuring such scenes. In order to gain accurate classification results, 50 different features are extracted from the measurement data and tested on their performance. From these features a suitable subset is chosen and passed to random forest and long short-term memory (LSTM) classifiers to obtain class predictions for the radar input. Moreover, it is shown why data imbalance is an inherent problem in automotive radar classification when the dataset is not sufficiently large. To overcome this issue, classifier binarization is used among other techniques in order to better account for underrepresented classes. A new method to couple the resulting probabilities is proposed and compared to others with great success. Final results show substantial improvements when compared to ordinary multiclass classificationComment: 8 pages, 6 figure